美国大豆被清零，特朗普称愿降低关税，但中国需“回报”做三件事

Core Points - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have severely impacted US soybean exports, with exports to China dropping to zero in September 2023, marking the first time since 2018 that such a decline has occurred [2][5] - The US soybean market has been significantly affected, with exports to China falling to 21.8 million bushels from January to August 2023, a substantial decrease compared to the previous year [2][9] - The US government has previously provided subsidies to farmers, but there is a growing urgency for a trade agreement to restore soybean purchases from China [5][9] Trade Dynamics - China has shifted its soybean imports to countries like Argentina and Brazil, purchasing 2 million tons from Argentina and significantly increasing imports from Brazil [4][9] - The US soybean prices have plummeted, leading farmers to rely on government subsidies for survival [4][5] - The overall agricultural exports from the US to China have decreased by 53%, with soybeans being the most affected commodity [2][4] Policy Responses - President Trump has indicated a willingness to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, contingent upon China meeting three conditions: resuming soybean imports, controlling fentanyl trafficking, and not restricting rare earth exports [7][11] - The US has implemented a series of tariffs, with the total rate reaching as high as 55%, which has prompted retaliatory measures from China [2][5] - The US administration is facing pressure from domestic farmers and the economy, as the trade war has led to increased manufacturing costs and consumer prices [7][11] Future Outlook - The ongoing negotiations between the US and China may lead to a potential breakthrough, with discussions around increasing soybean purchases and tariff adjustments [7][11] - The core issues of technology competition and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, indicating that the trade conflict is likely to persist [9][11] - The US agricultural sector's vulnerability has been exposed, necessitating a search for new markets to compensate for the loss of Chinese demand [9]