WLY(SZ:000858) Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-10-21 11:57Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities predicts a significant decline in the third-quarter performance of Wuliangye, forecasting a 30% drop in revenue and a 45% drop in net profit year-on-year, which contrasts sharply with predictions from other leading brokerages [2][3][6]. Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, with overall demand under pressure despite some month-on-month improvements in August due to better policy execution [3][6]. - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to show resilience, while mid-tier brands are struggling, particularly in business demand [3]. Company Performance Predictions - Wuliangye's third-quarter revenue is estimated at 120.9 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 32.3 billion yuan, down 45% [4][6]. - Other companies in the industry, such as Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, are projected to perform better, with Moutai's revenue expected to grow by 5% [4][11]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Wuliangye's average price for its flagship product has decreased to approximately 820 yuan per bottle, down 100 yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating weak demand [6][9]. - The report suggests that Wuliangye may need to adjust its strategy to stabilize product prices and maintain dealer confidence amid declining sales [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - GF Securities posits a potential shift in market positioning, suggesting that Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao may be "switching places" in terms of market performance, with Luzhou Laojiao gaining ground due to effective strategies [7][9]. - The report highlights that since 2021, the white liquor industry has faced challenges, with price declines affecting both Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, but the latter has managed to leverage its digital capabilities and market presence to improve its standing [9][10]. Long-term Outlook - GF Securities anticipates that Wuliangye's net profit will continue to decline in the coming years, projecting a drop to 236.5 billion yuan by 2026, while other top brands are expected to see profit growth [11][12].