股市还能继续涨吗？

Core Viewpoint - The current investment strategy emphasizes holding positions and increasing investments during market pullbacks, with a future recommendation to reduce holdings when the market rises sufficiently [1] Semiconductor Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry typically operates on a 3-4 year cycle, with stock prices generally leading the industry cycle [3][4] - The current cycle's bottom occurred in May 2023, but stock prices are expected to reach their bottom later, around 2024, indicating a lag in the profitability cycle of Chinese semiconductor companies compared to the global market [5][8] - The profitability of the A-share semiconductor industry, represented by ROE, peaked in 2021 and has been declining since, mirroring global trends [8] Current Market Conditions - The global semiconductor cycle is at a relatively high point, potentially extending due to the AI backdrop, while the Chinese semiconductor cycle is only halfway through, with many companies showing improved profitability [9] - The valuation of semiconductor stocks has increased significantly after recent price rises, leading to concerns about high valuations [10] Equipment Market Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector maintains a relatively stable valuation, with a PE ratio around 70, driven by domestic substitution and stable profitability [10] - The projected market size for various semiconductor equipment segments in 2024 shows increasing domestic market shares, indicating growth opportunities for local companies [11] Investment Philosophy - The investment approach highlights the counterintuitive nature of market cycles, where low sales and poor profitability often present the best buying opportunities, while strong market conditions signal potential downturns [12]