苏宁金融研究院：历史上的两次黄金大牛市，结局都很惨

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices has been significant, with London spot gold reaching a high of $4,380 per ounce and New York futures gold peaking at $4,392 per ounce within two months [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Bull Markets - The first gold bull market began in 1968, with prices starting at $35 per ounce and peaking at $850 per ounce in 1980, marking a cumulative increase of 2,328.57% [2]. - After reaching the peak in 1980, gold prices quickly fell to $653 per ounce, with a monthly increase narrowing from 51.92% to 27.54% [2]. - The price of gold entered a long-term downtrend from 1980 to 2000, hitting a low of $251.95 per ounce in 1999, a decline of 70.36% from the 1980 peak [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The first bull market was driven by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar due to rising fiscal deficits, economic stagnation, and inflation [5]. - The appointment of Paul Volcker as Fed Chairman in 1979 led to a significant increase in interest rates, which negatively correlated with gold prices, contributing to the end of the first bull market [6][7]. - The second gold bull market began in 2001, with prices rising from $272.50 per ounce to a peak of $1,921.15 per ounce in 2011, a cumulative increase of 605.01% [8]. - Similar to the first bull market, the second bull market ended with a rapid price correction after reaching new highs, with prices falling to $1,045.54 per ounce by December 2015, a drop of 45.58% from the peak [9]. Group 3: Current Gold Bull Market Dynamics - The current gold bull market started in 2022, with prices rising from $1,614 per ounce to a recent high of $4,380.79 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of 171.42% [15]. - The driving factors for the current bull market include persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and the politicization of the dollar's role as a reserve currency, leading countries to increase gold reserves [17]. - The potential for a fundamental improvement in the U.S. economy is seen as crucial for restoring confidence in the dollar and the U.S. economy, with artificial intelligence being identified as a key area for growth [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The current gold bull market is expected to continue, with price increases potentially reaching levels comparable to the previous bull markets, with a lower limit near the 605.01% increase of the second bull market and a possibility of exceeding the 2,328.57% increase of the first bull market [19]. - Despite the bullish outlook, price volatility and potential technical corrections are anticipated, necessitating caution in pursuing short-term gains [20].