大豆“博弈”：美国加关税，巴西坐地起价，每年要进口一亿吨的中国不买了

Core Viewpoint - The global soybean trade is experiencing significant tension as China, the largest soybean importer, has decided to halt purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January due to rising prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - China's soybean imports exceed 100 million tons annually, making it a critical player in the global soybean market [1]. - Brazilian soybean prices have surged recently, prompting Chinese buyers to react cautiously [1]. - The U.S. used to be a major supplier of soybeans to China, with imports exceeding 30 million tons, but tariffs have made U.S. soybeans significantly more expensive [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Restructuring - Brazil has filled the gap left by the U.S., with 80% of its soybean exports going to China in the first ten months of the year, peaking at 90% in September [3]. - Despite high production levels in Brazil, the country has raised prices, taking advantage of China's reliance on Brazilian supply [3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Chinese buyers are strategically pausing purchases, anticipating a potential price correction as new Brazilian soybean crops come to market [5]. - China is diversifying its soybean supply sources, increasing imports from Argentina and Russia, and encouraging domestic soybean cultivation [5]. - This situation reflects China's growing maturity and bargaining power in global agricultural trade, indicating that it is a reliable customer but not easily manipulated [5].