今明两年买房，3年后可能给自己找麻烦，有3个坏消息需要面对

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China is facing significant challenges, and potential buyers should consider long-term implications rather than immediate conditions when making purchasing decisions [3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of early 2025, real estate development investment in China has decreased to 19,904 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [6]. - Despite government efforts, the market remains stagnant, with predictions of continued challenges in the coming years [6]. - The overall housing prices are not expected to rebound significantly, with predictions of a potential decline of 15% to 25% by 2028 according to Goldman Sachs [7]. Group 2: Risks for Buyers - The shadow of declining housing prices persists, with many buyers experiencing significant losses on their investments, as exemplified by a case where a buyer's property value dropped nearly 20% [7]. - There is an anticipated upward trend in mortgage rates due to economic recovery and inflation pressures, which could lead to increased monthly payments for homeowners [9][10]. - The aging population in China is altering housing demand, with a shift towards smaller, more suitable living arrangements for older demographics, potentially leaving larger properties in lower demand [11]. Group 3: Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers should prioritize the residential aspect of real estate over investment potential, focusing on properties that meet their living needs rather than speculative gains [13]. - It is advisable to maintain a conservative approach to borrowing, ensuring that monthly payments do not exceed 30% of household income and keeping reserves for potential rate increases [14]. - Understanding urban development plans and demographic trends is crucial, as these factors will influence property values in the future [15][16]. - Buyers should consider the liquidity and marketability of properties, opting for types that are easier to sell or rent in a downturn [17]. - A long-term financial plan should be established, taking into account future income expectations and potential changes in the economic landscape [18].