特朗普已做好失败准备，正悄悄松绑关税政策，想给自己留后路

Core Points - The Trump administration's tariff policy is facing significant challenges, with the Supreme Court set to hold hearings on tariff overreach and reports of numerous product exemptions from tariffs [1][3] - The initial goal of the tariffs was to revive American manufacturing, but the strategy has backfired, leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses [5][9] - The trade war has not only failed to pressure China but has also resulted in American farmers and consumers suffering from the consequences of the tariffs [7][9] Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - Trump's tariff policy began on April 2, 2025, with tariffs on multiple countries, particularly increasing rates on China to 145% [3] - The policy was framed as a means to revitalize American manufacturing, but it was criticized as a display of personal power rather than a sound economic strategy [3][5] - The tariffs have led to significant inflationary pressures, with the Federal Reserve warning of long-term impacts and supply chain disruptions [5] Group 2: Economic Impact - Major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot protested against the tariffs, indicating that they would lead to higher prices for consumers [5] - Companies attempted to shift production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico to avoid tariffs, but this resulted in a 37% increase in supply chain costs [5] - The anticipated "manufacturing return" has not materialized, with companies like TSMC facing delays due to a lack of supporting suppliers in the U.S. [5][9] Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - China's response to the tariffs included diversifying its trade partnerships, with ASEAN becoming its largest trading partner, reflecting a shift away from reliance on the U.S. market [7] - The legal foundation of Trump's tariff policy is under scrutiny, with potential implications for previously negotiated trade agreements if the administration loses in court [7][9] - The administration's strategy has evolved to include exemptions for certain goods, indicating a retreat from the original hardline stance [9] Group 4: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The overall outcome of the tariff policy has been detrimental, with significant losses in the stock market and ongoing inflationary pressures [11] - Trump's recent actions, such as proposing tariffs on imported films, highlight the desperation and absurdity of the current trade strategy [11]