人民币汇率将保持稳中偏强

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, with the RMB middle rate reaching a new high since late October 2024, indicating a strong performance in October 2023 [1][2][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of October 20, 2023, the RMB middle rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0930, marking a significant increase and breaking the 7.10 threshold for five consecutive trading days [1][2]. - The RMB middle rate has appreciated over 900 basis points throughout the year, with fluctuations around the 7.17 level in early 2025 and a low of 7.2133 earlier in the year [2]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - External factors include the increasing risk of a US economic recession and a cooling labor market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut, thereby putting downward pressure on the US dollar index [4]. - Internally, China's economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with a stable economic foundation and increased attractiveness of the domestic securities market to foreign capital, contributing to the demand for RMB [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for RMB Stability - Analysts suggest that the recent appreciation may indicate the beginning of a long-term appreciation cycle for the RMB, supported by a solid economic foundation and policy space [5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level, with ongoing monitoring of market dynamics [6].