氧化铝供应过剩格局难扭转

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent fluctuations in alumina futures have been influenced by negative factors, with main contract prices hovering around 2750 CNY/ton [1] - China's bauxite production in September was 4.8821 million tons, down 2.32% year-on-year, with supply tight due to ongoing rainy season impacts in Shanxi and Henan [1] - Domestic bauxite imports in September reached 15.8806 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.17% but a year-on-year increase of 38.26% [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In September, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.52% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - As of October 17, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11.462 million tons, with operational capacity at 9.715 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in September was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [4] Group 3: Pricing and Inventory - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 4.639 million tons as of October 10, with a weekly increase of 63,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 721,000 tons [2] - The FOB alumina price from Western Australia was reported at 323 USD/ton as of October 16, down 15% from the July peak [3] - The domestic alumina market is expected to experience price stabilization due to high absolute inventory levels and reduced profit margins for alumina plants [1][2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The alumina market is anticipated to face oversupply pressure, with potential large-scale production cuts expected in November [6] - The overall economic environment in China is stable, with expectations of enhanced resilience due to policy support [6] - The alumina futures market is projected to experience a bottoming-out trend, with a support level around 2700 CNY/ton [6]