焦煤维持震荡格局 关注铁水产量变化及宏观政策信号

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal market is currently in a state of weak supply-demand balance, with prices showing a fluctuating trend influenced by multiple factors including fundamentals, policy disturbances, and macro sentiment [1] Supply Side - The recovery pace of coking coal supply is stable, with domestic coal mines gradually returning to normal production levels after the National Day holiday [2] - Import channels have resumed normal operations, with significant increases in Mongolian coal imports expected due to a trial of full-load transportation mode [2] - The international forward market remains stable, with Australian premium coking coal prices holding at $205.5 per ton, while Russian coal markets are stable with active inquiries but a cautious outlook [2] Demand Side - Overall, there is still support from rigid demand, but the purchasing pace from downstream sectors has slowed [3] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills remains high at 241.54 million tons, indicating that the rigid demand for coking coal has not completely disappeared [3] - Steel prices are under pressure, which may weaken the overall demand for coking coal [3] Inventory Situation - Upstream coal mine inventories have seen a slight accumulation, but the pressure is not significant, with raw coal inventory at 4.4635 million tons and washed coal inventory at 1.959 million tons [4] - The inventory levels are relatively low compared to the annual average, and the accumulation is attributed to normal purchasing pauses during the holiday rather than weak demand [4] - Downstream sectors are continuing to reduce inventories, which supports coking coal prices [4] External Factors - The macro environment is providing support for the market, with coal and coke prices continuing to show a fluctuating trend without significant volatility [5] - The recovery of domestic coal production to pre-holiday levels is limited in further incremental space, and regulatory policies may constrain supply [5] - The short-term supply pressure is manageable, with high pig iron production levels maintaining some rigid demand for coking coal [5]