牛市狂欢中，为何受伤的总是散户？

Core Insights - The Japanese Financial Services Agency is considering allowing banks to directly invest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which has led to a rebound in Bitcoin prices, surpassing the $110,000 mark [1] - Historical data shows that retail investors often suffer significant losses during bull markets, with an average loss of -60% during the 2015 bull market [3] - Behavioral finance explains why investors continue to take risks despite knowing the potential downsides, highlighting phenomena such as herd mentality, loss aversion, and confirmation bias [7] Market Analysis - The 2007 bull market lasted 553 days, with 207 days showing declines, while the 2015 bull market had 212 down days out of 495 trading days, indicating that downturns are common even in rising markets [3][5] - The adjustment in bull markets can be severe, as evidenced by a 22% drop in just six days during the 2007 market [5] - The data from the 2015 market shows a starting price of 4272.11 and an ending price of 3767.10, reflecting an 11.8% decline [6] Institutional Insights - Institutional investors hold the pricing power in the market, and understanding their behavior is crucial for making informed investment decisions [7][10] - A comparison of two stocks illustrates the importance of recognizing institutional activity; one stock showed resilience despite fluctuations, while the other faced continued declines despite apparent rebounds [10][13] - The rise of digital assets is underscored by a 3.5-fold increase in cryptocurrency accounts over five years, indicating a shift in the financial landscape [13] Strategic Takeaways - The evolution of financial markets necessitates that investors adapt and utilize tools that provide clarity on market dynamics [14] - Recognizing the importance of data over expert opinions can lead to better investment decisions in an era of information overload [13][14] - The current situation in Japan, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 240%, highlights the challenges facing traditional financial systems and the growing significance of digital assets [13]