多重因素影响 金银价格大幅跳水

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver hitting their largest single-day declines since 2013 and 2021 respectively, influenced by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold prices fell by 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, while spot silver prices dropped by 8.7%, the largest since 2021 [1]. - COMEX gold futures decreased by 5.28%, and COMEX silver futures fell by 7.67% [1]. - As of the latest update, COMEX gold futures closed down 4.94% at $4144.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down 6.37% at $48.11 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The drop in precious metals prices lacks a clear catalyst, indicating that investor enthusiasm has not reached excessive levels, suggesting a rational boundary for gold price increases [2]. - The expectation of a U.S. government shutdown resolution and easing trade tensions may lead to a consolidation phase for gold prices in the coming weeks, with Citibank setting a target price of $4000 per ounce for the next 1-3 months [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the economy during the government shutdown and the potential end of quantitative tightening have bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The ongoing trend of central banks, including China, increasing their gold reserves supports the market, with China having added gold for 11 consecutive months [2][3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The current trading in the gold market revolves around expectations of monetary policy easing and diversification of asset allocation [4]. - Despite high gold prices suppressing some consumer demand, investment demand has surged, with global gold ETFs seeing a return of funds [4]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a bullish outlook on gold prices in the long term, while cautioning against chasing high prices in the short term due to potential technical corrections [5].