花生收获季遇“天劫”！减产板上钉钉？价格要涨？行业人士如是说

Core Viewpoint - The peanut harvest is facing challenges due to extreme weather conditions, impacting both yield and quality, with futures market activity reflecting these uncertainties [1][2][3] Group 1: Production and Quality - The northeast region shows stable supply and good quality peanuts, while the southwestern Shandong region faces poor yield and quality [1] - In Henan, rainfall in September and October has affected quality, with about 10% of early-harvested peanuts experiencing quality decline due to rain [1] - Despite challenges, industry experts believe that Henan's overall peanut production will not be lower than last year due to recovery in drought-affected areas and increased planting [2] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - Demand for peanut products during the "Double Festival" period is weak, leading to increased ratios of lower-quality peanuts and compressed profit margins for high-quality products [2][3] - Oil mills are cautious in their purchasing, with only a few buying peanuts and most waiting to see how the market develops [3] - The outlook for peanut prices suggests a potential decline after the new season's harvest, influenced by the quantity and quality of lower-grade peanuts [3] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - Analysts predict that if the quantity of lower-quality peanuts is high, prices may drop significantly, while limited supply of acceptable quality peanuts could stabilize prices [3] - The market is currently experiencing a shift in futures pricing, indicating concerns over short-term supply pressures, but long-term expectations remain for tightened supply [3]