中国巨石(600176):粗纱、电子布销量表现亮眼 业绩符合我们预期

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating strong operational resilience and potential for future profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to 4.795 billion yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 54% to 880 million yuan; and non-recurring net profit increased by 73% to 910 million yuan, despite a non-recurring loss of 30.19 million yuan due to asset disposals [1]. - The gross profit per ton of yarn slightly decreased quarter-on-quarter, while electronic fabric sales showed strong performance, with a notable increase in sales volume [1]. - The company's operating cash flow was slightly under pressure, with net cash flow from operating activities at 694 million yuan, and capital expenditures decreased year-on-year to approximately 270 million yuan [1]. Development Trends - In Q4 2025, electronic fabric price increases are expected to enhance profitability, supported by limited production pressure and stable downstream demand [2]. - The company plans to launch a 100,000-ton electronic yarn production line in Huai'an, which could lead to over 30% capacity increase upon full production [2]. - The gross yarn industry is projected to have controlled net new capacity in 2026, with a focus on the overseas profitability contribution from leading companies [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.88 yuan and 1.01 yuan, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 18x and 16x P/E for those years [3]. - The target price has been raised by 22% to 18.2 yuan, implying a 15% upside potential based on expected valuation uplift from high-end electronic fabric products [3].