被券商预测“三季度净利润下滑45%” 五粮液最新回应

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Guangfa Securities predicts a significant decline in Wuliangye's third-quarter performance, with a projected 30% drop in revenue and a 45% drop in net profit compared to the previous year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Predictions - Guangfa Securities forecasts that Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2025 may decrease by 30% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to decline by 45% [4]. - The report indicates that Wuliangye's average price for its flagship product has fallen to approximately 820 yuan per bottle, down 100 yuan from the beginning of the year [4]. - Other brokerages, such as招商证券, have more moderate predictions, estimating an 8% decrease in revenue and a 13% decrease in profit for Wuliangye in Q3 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the white liquor industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, with many products seeing price declines since 2021 [6]. - Guangfa Securities notes that Wuliangye's high-end product ratio is increasing, which contrasts with the overall market trend where high-end liquor consumption is declining [7]. - The brokerage suggests that Wuliangye's management changes have allowed competitors like Luzhou Laojiao to narrow the gap in market performance [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Guangfa Securities anticipates that Wuliangye's net profit will continue to decline, projecting a drop to 23.65 billion yuan by 2026 [7]. - The report indicates that while Wuliangye faces challenges, other top liquor companies are expected to see profit growth in the same period [7].