避险情绪高涨下的极致押注：交易员不计成本看涨美债！

Core Viewpoint - Despite the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to a six-month low, bond traders are preparing for further declines in yields, driven by rising costs of options that protect against significant yield drops and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The cost of bullish options on U.S. Treasuries has significantly increased relative to bearish options, indicating a strong market sentiment towards further declines in yields [1] - Traders are heavily investing in high-quality safe-haven assets, with a notable increase in bullish positions on U.S. Treasuries as they anticipate yields may drop to 3.75%-3.70% [2][3] - A recent survey by JPMorgan shows a slight increase in short positions and a decrease in long positions, suggesting a market structure that could lead to price increases due to short covering [2][3] Group 2: SOFR Options Activity - The most active SOFR options include a significant increase in open interest for call options with a strike price of 96.5625, reflecting expectations of a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [4] - Recent trading activity around the 96.50 strike price indicates a concentration of positions, with traders buying various call spreads to capitalize on anticipated rate cuts [5] - The open interest for both call and put options at the 96.25 strike price has also increased, indicating a buildup of new risk positions in the market [5]