昨夜突发！黄金、白银崩了

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices marks a rare event, with gold experiencing its largest single-day drop since April 2013 and silver its largest drop since 2021 [1][2]. Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold fell by 6.3%, closing at $4,124.355 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 5.07% to $4,138.5 per ounce [1]. - Spot silver saw a decline of 7.11%, with COMEX silver futures down by 6.27% [1]. - Following the initial drop, gold prices rebounded slightly to above $4,070 per ounce [1]. Causes of the Decline - Analysts attribute the price drop primarily to profit-taking and a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing global trade tensions [2]. - A strengthening U.S. dollar has made precious metals more expensive for most buyers, further contributing to the decline [2]. - Changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation have also introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for U.S. positions on Ukraine [2]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Independent metal trader Tai Wong noted that recent high volatility in gold prices may lead to short-term profit-taking [3]. - Hudson Attar from Bridgewater expressed uncertainty about the future of the gold market, suggesting that the likelihood of a decline is greater than further increases [4]. - Attar highlighted that the sustainability of high-net-worth Western investors' gold purchases is crucial for future price support [4]. Long-term Projections - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum could continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of $5,000 per ounce [5]. - The report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is a significant factor driving gold demand, as investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness [5].