张尧浠：贸易及停摆乐观打压有限、金价跳水仍是多头机会

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices, which fell over 6.3%, is attributed to optimistic market expectations regarding the end of the U.S. government shutdown and potential trade agreements, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 21, gold opened at $4,354.42 per ounce, reached a high of $4,375.09, and then fell to a low of $4,082.92, closing at $4,124.76, marking a daily decline of $229.66 or 5.27% [3]. - The market's optimism about the U.S. government shutdown ending and trade negotiations has strengthened the dollar, further pressuring gold prices [3][5]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that gold prices will continue to decline until the government shutdown is resolved, with a focus on potential support levels for re-entry into long positions [5]. - Historical patterns suggest that the current trade optimism is temporary, and once the shutdown ends, economic data may worsen, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in gold prices [5][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold has encountered resistance near the upward trend line and is due for a technical correction, with support expected around $3,945 [5]. - The weekly chart shows a significant drop of nearly $300, confirming the effectiveness of the upward trend pressure, with expectations of a potential decline to around $3,800 [7][8]. - Daily analysis indicates that gold prices have fallen below the 5-10 day moving averages, but there is potential for a rebound if prices stabilize around the Bollinger Band midline and the 30-day moving average [10]. Trading Strategy - Key levels to watch include support at $4,050 or $3,950 and resistance at $4,155 or $4,230 for gold [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $47.30 or $46.60, with resistance at $49.00 or $49.80 [10].