天气影响叠加进口减少 玉米后市仍有反弹空间

Group 1 - Since mid-October, corn futures prices in Dalian have reversed the downward trend observed since late September, beginning to rise slightly due to continuous rain in North China and increasing expectations of reduced corn production [1] - The prolonged rainy weather in North China's main corn-producing areas has led to record-breaking rainfall, resulting in increased moldy corn and a sharp decline in high-quality corn, thereby reducing effective supply [1] - The reliance of feed enterprises on Northeast corn is expected to increase, which will support the overall rise in domestic corn prices [1] Group 2 - Due to trade frictions, China's total corn imports have significantly decreased, with September imports of corn and corn flour at 60,000 tons, an 81.9% decrease year-on-year [2] - From January to September, cumulative corn imports were 930,000 tons, down 92.7% compared to the same period last year [2] - The demand for corn deep processing has declined due to reduced processing profits, with an estimated consumption of 5.1 million tons in September, a decrease of 48,000 tons year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Despite the decrease in deep processing demand, the steady growth in feed demand can partially offset this pressure, indicating a shift in the market supply-demand balance from a previous surplus to a tight equilibrium [2]