日本经济蓝皮书：中国市场对日本企业仍至关重要

Core Viewpoint - The "Japan Economic Blue Book: Research Report on Japan's Economy and China-Japan Economic and Trade Relations (2025)" indicates that the Chinese market remains crucial for Japanese companies, presenting opportunities for deepened cooperation in China-Japan economic relations [1]. Economic Outlook - In 2024, Japan's economy is expected to show signs of recovery, albeit at a slow pace, with nominal GDP projected to exceed 600 trillion yen, marking the highest level on record. However, the real GDP growth rate is anticipated to remain low, continuing a trend of ultra-slow growth. Japan's nominal GDP is still smaller than Germany's, making it the fourth-largest economy in the world [3]. - Factors such as improved employment conditions, increased investment demand, expanded consumption from tourists, and growth in export trade are expected to support Japan's economic recovery. However, challenges such as rising U.S. trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions, global supply chain disruptions, and slowing world economic growth may exert significant pressure on Japan's recovery [3]. China-Japan Trade Relations - Despite the widening asymmetry in trade dependence, the complementary nature of trade between China and Japan remains significant. Japanese direct investment in China has declined due to various internal and external factors, yet the Chinese market is still vital for Japanese enterprises. Under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China-Japan economic cooperation continues to deepen [4]. - In 2025, amid challenges like escalating protectionism, global supply chain fragmentation, and slowing economic growth, there are opportunities for enhanced cooperation in China-Japan economic relations. Both countries are encouraged to deepen economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and under the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on structural complementarity to unleash collaborative potential in areas such as the "silver economy," "dual carbon," and digital economy [4]. Japan's Global Economic Diplomacy - The status of the Global South in Japan's economic diplomacy is beginning to rise. Historically, Japan has not given sufficient attention to developing countries, but since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, there has been a shift towards a more proactive diplomatic stance, emphasizing economic strength, technological advantages, and the dissemination of values to shape Japan's role in the international community [4][5]. - Abe's initiatives, such as "Earth Observation Diplomacy" and the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy," reflect Japan's active diplomatic efforts to include the Global South, including Africa, in its foreign policy to enhance its international influence [5].