Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - For Q3 2025, the group expects a 9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 5.45 billion, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 14% to CNY 4.59 billion [2] - The hotel segment is anticipated to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is expected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [2] - Other revenues are projected to increase by 34%, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenues [2] Group 2: Annual Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 core OTA revenue growth forecast at 15%, supported by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The company is expected to achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 3.3 billion for 2025, aided by efficient cost control and enhanced monetization of international business [3]
中金：维持同程旅行(00780)跑赢行业评级 目标价28港元