现货黄金跌回4002美元，贵金属是否进入“打折季”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and easing macroeconomic tensions, despite a long-term bullish outlook for precious metals driven by central bank purchases and monetary easing expectations [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Movements - On October 22, gold and silver futures opened with significant drops, with gold reaching a low of 933 CNY per gram and London spot gold hitting a low of 4002 USD per ounce [2]. - On October 21, gold prices fell by 6.18%, while silver experienced an 8.72% drop, falling below 50 USD per ounce [2]. - The rapid shift from a "hot" to a "frozen" market for gold prices indicates a correction after a period of sustained overbuying [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Easing trade tensions and geopolitical news contributed to the decline in precious metal prices, alongside a backdrop of rising short-term risks [2]. - Recent disclosures of loan fraud and bad debts by two U.S. banks triggered a credit crisis, leading to a sell-off in the stock market, particularly affecting regional banks [2]. - Despite the short-term volatility, the fundamental outlook for gold remains unchanged, with ongoing expectations for monetary easing and persistent market risk aversion [2][4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of 5000 USD [3]. - Huashan Fund indicates that the current trading environment for gold is overheated, with implied volatility levels exceeding 20, signaling potential short-term risks [3]. - Analysts believe that while central bank purchases and investment demand will support long-term price increases, short-term adjustments may still pose challenges for investors [4].