金价大跌！什么原因？未来走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced significant sell-offs due to geopolitical factors and profit-taking by investors, leading to the largest single-day price drops in over a decade for gold and the largest since 2021 for silver [1][6]. Price Movements - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell over 6%, dropping below $4100 per ounce, marking a 12-year record for single-day decline [1]. - International spot silver prices decreased by over 8%, falling below $48 per ounce, the largest single-day drop since 2021 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw substantial reductions on the 22nd, with notable declines in major brands: Lao Miao down by 83 RMB to 1211 RMB per gram, Chow Sang Sang down by 39 RMB to 1250 RMB per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang down by 61 RMB to 1229 RMB per gram [3][4]. Market Analysis - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have risen over 50%, while silver prices have increased nearly 70% [6]. - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to profit-taking after a period of strong performance driven by geopolitical tensions and investor demand for safe-haven assets [7]. - The market is currently experiencing a correction phase, with concerns about overbought conditions in precious metals [7][8]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, with a higher likelihood of declines unless high-net-worth investors continue to increase their gold holdings [8]. - HSBC's commodity outlook report suggests that gold's upward momentum could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., with a target price of $5000 per ounce [9]. - However, potential resistance to gold's price increases may arise if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are fewer than market expectations [9].