长安期货屈亚娟：镍价低位徘徊近四个月，等待新的驱动

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been fluctuating around 121,000, facing pressure from an overall surplus in the industry chain, with cost support preventing further declines [1] Supply Chain Dynamics - Indonesia accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, and the government has tightened control over nickel ore supply by reducing mining quota validity from three years to one year, requiring miners to reapply for previously granted quotas [1] - Nickel ore prices have remained stable recently, with the price for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB 43.5 and domestic prices ranging from CIF 49.5 to 50.5 [1] - Domestic nickel ore inventory reached 15.2884 million wet tons as of October 17, with a cumulative import of 32.167 million tons from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [2] Production Insights - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 178,200 tons in September, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 19.73% [4] - China's refined nickel production in September was 36,795 tons, maintaining a high level, with a cumulative production of nearly 320,000 tons from January to September, up 35.9% year-on-year [6] - Nickel pig iron imports in September were 1.0853 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.3% and a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [4] Demand Trends - The demand for nickel is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant [8] - Domestic production of 300 series stainless steel in September was 1.7627 million tons, a slight increase from August, while the production for October is expected to remain stable [8] - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has risen to 28,550 yuan per ton, indicating a tightening supply for intermediate products [8] Market Summary - The overall industry chain remains in a state of surplus, with high port inventories and increased nickel pig iron imports from Indonesia, leading to downward pressure on prices [10] - Refined nickel production remains high, with elevated inventories both domestically and in LME, contributing to a loose supply environment [10] - Downstream demand for stainless steel is weak, although there are signs of improvement in the ternary battery sector, which may provide limited support [10]