贵金属市场遭遇罕见重挫，黄金基金ETF、上海金ETF跌超5%，黄金股票ETF跌超4%

Group 1 - The precious metals market has experienced a rare and significant decline, with spot gold dropping as much as 6.3% to approximately $4080 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in over 12 years [1] - Spot silver saw a sharp decline of 8.7%, reaching $47.89 per ounce, the worst single-day performance since February 2021 [1] - COMEX gold and silver futures also fell sharply, with COMEX gold futures down 5.07% to $4138.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 6.27% to $48.16 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The decline in precious metals is primarily attributed to a decrease in risk aversion, a strengthening dollar, and investors locking in profits due to concerns over historically high valuations [2] - MKS PAMP SA's metal strategy head, Nicky Shiels, indicated that the market is showing signs of a bubble, with extreme overbought conditions suggesting that the recent surge in gold prices is nearing its peak [2] - Citibank forecasts that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the announcement of a U.S.-China agreement may lead to a consolidation phase for gold in the next 2-3 weeks, with a short-term bearish outlook and a target price of $4000 per ounce [2] Group 3 - Analysts from ANZ Bank believe that the current positions in gold and silver futures have accumulated to significant levels, potentially triggering sell-offs, although they maintain that long-term drivers for gold prices remain supportive [2] - New Lake Futures noted that speculative funds entering the market have accelerated gold price increases, with technical indicators showing severe overbought conditions, leading to increased volatility [2] - In the medium to long term, central bank gold purchases and trends of de-dollarization are expected to support an upward trend in precious metal prices [2] Group 4 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, views gold as a fundamental and stable investment, describing it as a "settlement currency" that does not create new debt but directly settles it [3] - Dalio emphasizes that gold has a unique position in investment portfolios, serving as a widely accepted form of "non-currency" exchange medium and store of value, partially replacing U.S. Treasury bonds as a "risk-free asset" [3] - He suggests that a strategic allocation of 10% to 15% of gold in an investment portfolio is reasonable for most investors [3]