奈飞：又来暴跌，“剧王”真已平庸了？

Core Viewpoint - Netflix's Q3 2025 earnings report revealed a significant drop in stock price, primarily due to a perceived earnings miss, despite actual operating profits exceeding market expectations when adjusted for a one-time tax expense [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of $102.47 billion for Q3, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Operating income was reported at $32.49 billion, but this included a one-time cost of $6.19 billion related to a municipal service tax in Brazil, which impacted the profit margin by over 5 percentage points [24]. - Excluding this tax impact, the actual operating profit was $38.7 billion, representing a 33% year-over-year increase and a profit margin of 34% [24]. Revenue and Growth Drivers - Revenue growth was primarily driven by price increases and advertising, with a modest net addition of approximately 4 million subscribers, lower than the previous two years' quarterly averages [3][12]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) growth was limited to 3-5% due to price increases being offset by the introduction of ad-supported tiers [3]. Content Investment and Strategy - Netflix's content investment for the year is projected to fall short of the initial target of $18 billion, likely reaching between $17 billion and $17.5 billion [5][17]. - The company spent $4.6 billion on content in Q3, an increase from the previous quarter, but still reflects a trend of controlling content spending amid a relatively stable competitive environment [17][21]. Cash Flow and Share Buybacks - Free cash flow for Q3 was approximately $26.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, and the company raised its full-year cash flow target from $8-8.5 billion to $9 billion [26]. - In Q3, Netflix repurchased $1.9 billion worth of shares at an average price of $1,250, although the impact on stock price has been limited [26]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about Q4, expecting a net addition of around 10 million subscribers, driven by the release of major content such as the final season of "Stranger Things" [15][17].