走一步看一步！美联储新货币政策框架首秀，降息25基点仅是开始？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024 and the first under the new monetary policy framework introduced in August 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the S&P 500 index initially rose by 0.5%, indicating a positive market sentiment [3] - However, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where he described the cut as a "risk management" move due to concerns over the labor market, the market experienced a decline, with a maximum drop of 0.8% [3] - Powell's comments about the potential for further actions led to a brief market rebound, but the overall closing was slightly down [5] Group 2: Changes in Monetary Policy Approach - The recent interest rate cut differs significantly from the one in September 2024, where Powell referred to it as a "recalibration" with a clear plan for economic soft landing [8] - In contrast, the current approach is more reactive, with Powell stating that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, indicating a lack of a predetermined path [8] - The shift in strategy is attributed to the complexities introduced by Trump's tariff policies, which have created a unique economic environment characterized by "policy-induced price increases" [10] Group 3: New Framework Implications - The Federal Reserve's new "flexible inflation targeting" framework requires attention to both employment and inflation, contrasting with the previous focus solely on employment [12] - This change necessitates a more cautious approach to rate cuts, as the Fed must balance the risks of overheating the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - There are strong expectations for another rate cut in October, influenced by the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent actions [14] - The recent cut is viewed as a temporary measure rather than a long-term solution, with caution advised for investors due to high market valuations and ongoing inflation uncertainties [16]