寒冬来临，房地产还有未来吗？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a new stage characterized by structural adjustments and a focus on high-quality development, indicating a future with different dynamics compared to the past two decades [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - New home sales are projected to drop to approximately 900 million square meters by 2025, a 50% decrease compared to 2021 [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the national commodity housing sales area saw a year-on-year growth of only 3.5%, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly five years [2]. - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,691 yuan per square meter in June, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.26% [2]. Group 2: Future Directions - The focus will shift from "incremental development" to "stock operation," emphasizing the revitalization and fine-tuning of existing properties rather than new construction [3]. - The concept of housing is evolving from merely being a "living machine" to creating "living scenes," where the quality of life and community engagement are prioritized [3]. - The market will transition from a "universal appreciation myth" to a "differentiation era," where property values will vary significantly based on location and quality [3]. Group 3: Property Value Determinants - Properties in core cities with scarce resources and strong product capabilities are expected to remain resilient, while properties in areas lacking industrial and population support will revert to their fundamental residential nature [4]. - The value of real estate will increasingly be determined by the quality of life it offers [5]. Group 4: Industry Resilience - The demand for housing is perpetual, indicating that while the industry has a future, individual companies may face challenges, particularly those with high leverage [6].