富国观市丨贸易摩擦压制情绪，下周聚焦政策指引

A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market performed poorly this week due to multiple factors, including external trade frictions, with major indices collectively declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 5.71%, and the CSI 300 decreased by 2.22% [1] - Defensive sectors such as banking and coal showed relative resilience, while the previously popular technology growth sector experienced significant adjustments. The banking sector led with a gain of 4.89%, while electronics fell by 7.14% [1] - The market's performance was influenced by external uncertainties, particularly the escalation of Sino-US trade tensions, which amplified market volatility [5] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market experienced a downward trend influenced by both internal and external factors, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 3.97% and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 7.98% [8][11] - Defensive sectors like utilities and telecommunications performed relatively well, while growth sectors such as information technology and healthcare faced significant declines [8] - Southbound capital showed a contrary trend, with a net inflow of 450.89 million HKD, indicating a potential long-term value recognition by domestic investors [8] Macroeconomic Events to Watch - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session from October 20 to 23 is expected to focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will be a key area of market attention, particularly regarding policies supporting new productivity and addressing internal competition [7][13] - The release of Q3 earnings reports later in October will also be crucial, as market sentiment will likely adjust based on corporate profitability [7] Technology Sector Insights - The recent adjustment in the technology sector is attributed to external uncertainties and profit-taking from previous gains, but the underlying industry logic remains intact, suggesting that the main trend for technology stocks is not over [6] - The technology sector is supported by three key industry dynamics: increasing demand driven by technological iterations, rising domestic substitution rates, and potential demand surges if business models prove successful [6] Future Outlook - Despite the ongoing tensions in Sino-US trade relations, the core logic of the Hong Kong market remains focused on domestic economic recovery and global liquidity conditions. The market is expected to stabilize as long as liquidity expectations are maintained [14] - The "barbell" strategy of investing in both high-growth technology sectors and stable dividend-paying assets is recommended to balance risk and return in the current market environment [14]