日本央行年底前加息概率被低估？鸽派首相或挡不住紧缩步伐

Group 1 - A majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise key interest rates in October or December, with nearly 96% predicting a minimum increase of 25 basis points by the end of March next year [1][2] - Among 75 economists surveyed, 60% anticipate the Bank of Japan will raise short-term rates from 0.50% to 0.75% within the current quarter [1] - The internal stance of the Bank of Japan's policy committee appears to favor an interest rate hike, despite potential delays due to domestic political and global economic uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Financial markets currently price in a 40% probability of an interest rate hike before the end of the year [3] - High City Sawa, the newly appointed Prime Minister, has committed to increasing government spending in key areas such as energy and economic security under a framework of "responsible and proactive fiscal policy" [3] - Among respondents, 67% expressed uncertainty about agreeing with High City Sawa's economic policies [3][4] Group 3 - Concerns about the impact of fiscal policies on financial health were raised by nearly two-thirds of respondents [4] - Market pressures, such as rising long-term bond yields, may constrain fiscal expansion efforts [5]