锌价连涨三天！交易商争抢库存，LME锌市场临数十年来最紧张局面

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc market is experiencing one of the most severe supply squeezes in decades, leading to a continuous rise in spot zinc prices for three consecutive days, with significant pressure on short sellers to cover positions or deliver physical metal [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Spot zinc prices have increased by 0.37% to $2,999 per ton, marking a third consecutive day of price rise [1]. - The premium of spot zinc over three-month contracts has surged to $323 per ton, the highest level in over 20 years, indicating that spot demand exceeds immediate supply [1]. - LME warehouse zinc inventory has plummeted to 24,425 tons, which is insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market with an annual consumption of 14 million tons [3][4]. Group 2: Market Pressure and Positioning - The significant long positions held by six independent entities correspond to at least three times the available inventory in the LME warehouse, putting short sellers in a precarious position [5]. - The Tom/next price spread, reflecting the cost of rolling over contracts, reached $30 per ton, the highest since 2022, indicating tight market conditions [3]. - Analysts suggest that the inability of LME inventories to attract new metal inflows may necessitate exports from China to alleviate short-term market pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The current market dynamics are characterized by a delicate balance, with low inventory levels making the market susceptible to shocks [4]. - The overall metal market is experiencing moderate movements, influenced by changes in trade outlook and uncertainty regarding risk assets, with copper prices slightly declining [6].