Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-22 06:20Core Insights - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates a weakening trend in both domestic and export sales of household air conditioners in September, influenced by base effects and policy changes [1] - Despite the overall decline, Haier has shown significant growth, suggesting a divergence in performance among leading brands [1][3] - The white goods sector has been underperforming since Q3 2025, with current relative valuations at historical lows, indicating that short-term pressures may already be priced in [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Data - In September, the production of household air conditioners reached 10.57 million units, down 13.48% year-on-year, while sales totaled 10.88 million units, down 10.24% year-on-year [1] - Domestic sales were 5.95 million units, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, while exports were 4.94 million units, down 18.06% year-on-year [1] - Inventory at the end of the month stood at 14.26 million units, a decline of 2.36% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic air conditioner sales in September saw a year-on-year decline of 3%, aligning with expectations due to a high base effect [2] - The upcoming policy for replacing old units in Q4 2024 is expected to drive a significant increase in domestic sales, with projections of a 24% year-on-year growth [2] - The retail volume for online and offline sales showed a two-year CAGR of 31% and 1%, respectively, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2] Group 3: Brand Performance - In September, Midea and Gree experienced year-on-year sales declines of 15% and 13%, respectively, while Haier reported a 25% increase [3] - Haier's market share increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable 37% growth in Q3 2025 [3] - The average retail prices for air conditioners showed a slight increase of 0.4% online but a decrease of 7.5% offline, reflecting pressure on volume sales [3] Group 4: Export Market Dynamics - Export sales of air conditioners fell by 18% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the external market [4] - There are signs of improvement in export orders for leading brands, with production guidance for October and November showing a decrease of 9.4% and 6.6% compared to the same period last year [4] - The anticipated growth in export sales for Q4 2024 is projected at 49%, although challenges remain due to trade negotiations and tariff issues [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in leading brands such as Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Hisense Home Appliances, and Gree Electric Appliances, highlighting their resilience and high-quality attributes [5]