五个月来首次反弹！日元贬值推动，日本9月出口增长4.2%

Core Viewpoint - Japan's September exports ended a four-month decline, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from yen depreciation and strong shipments to Asian markets, although the growth fell short of market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - September exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year, reversing August's 0.1% decline, but this growth was below economists' expectations of 5.7% [1]. - Exports to Asia were a highlight, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, driven by semiconductor exports, which grew by 12.6% in value [2][3]. - Exports to the United States contracted for the sixth consecutive month, decreasing by 13.3% year-on-year, significantly impacted by tariffs from the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The yen depreciated by 2.3% against the dollar year-on-year, enhancing the price competitiveness of Japanese goods [1]. - Despite the yen's depreciation, the actual impact on exports is questioned, as policy factors like tariffs may have a more significant effect than currency fluctuations [2]. - The new Prime Minister's policies may further weaken the yen, with the market betting on a "Kishida trade" that has driven the Nikkei 225 index to a historical high [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Economists warn that if the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows, it could lead to yen appreciation, potentially suppressing export values [1][4]. - The trade outlook remains uncertain, with domestic demand unlikely to rescue the economy, as highlighted by Moody's analysis [4]. - Japan's GDP for the second quarter was revised up to 0.5%, indicating stronger-than-expected economic resilience [4].