研报掘金丨国盛证券：神火股份Q3电解铝&煤炭板块盈利能力或增强，公司价值待重估

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Shenhua Co., Ltd. experienced a slight decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in coal prices, which weakened the profitability of its coal products [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [1] - Revenue for the quarters was as follows: Q1 at 9.6 billion yuan (up 17% year-on-year), Q2 at 10.8 billion yuan (up 8% year-on-year), and Q3 at 10.6 billion yuan (up 5% year-on-year) [1] - Net profit for the quarters was: Q1 at 700 million yuan (down 35% year-on-year), Q2 at 1.2 billion yuan (up 0.2% year-on-year), and Q3 at 1.6 billion yuan (up 26% year-on-year), with Q3 showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33% [1] Market Position and Product Offering - The company is a major supplier of premium coal for metallurgical enterprises, particularly for blast furnace injection, and holds a leading position in the industry with a coking coal output rate of approximately 75% [1] - The company produces rare coal types such as smokeless coal and lean coal, which are in high demand [1] Price Trends and Profitability - According to Wind data, the factory price of lean coal in Xuchang, Henan, was 1,009 yuan per ton in Q3, representing a year-on-year decrease of 19% but an increase of 8% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The recovery in coal prices is expected to improve the operating capabilities of the sector [1] Strategic Advantages - As a leading player in the aluminum industry, the company benefits from cost advantages associated with its dual-base electrolytic aluminum operations in Yunnan and Xinjiang, enjoying low-carbon premiums in hydroelectric aluminum [1] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum business is highly elastic, indicating potential for improved margins as coal prices recover [1] - The company's valuation is anticipated to be reassessed in light of these developments [1]