机构观点：黄金高位暴跌后险守4000大关，牛市是否已逆转？

Group 1 - The recent pullback in spot gold is attributed to profit-taking behavior, as algorithmic trading has ceased to chase higher prices [1] - The previous surge in gold prices led to excessive "FOMO" (fear of missing out), with small flash crashes potentially indicating larger volatility ahead [2] - Factors such as the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown may drive the gold market to consolidate in the next 2 to 3 weeks [3] - The largest decline in gold prices in a decade may be due to structural issues in holdings and a natural adjustment after nine consecutive weeks of increases [4] - Despite the recent pullback, there is an expectation for gold prices to rise further, as traders view any price drop as a buying opportunity [5] - Extreme daily fluctuations in gold prices suggest a bearish outlook, indicating that the primary bull market may be nearing its peak [6] - It is premature to declare the end of the gold bull market; the recent pullback is natural, and investors who missed the rally may soon enter the market to buy the dip, helping to stabilize sell-offs [7] - The absence of CFTC position data during the U.S. government shutdown has made it easier for speculators to build large positions in one direction, increasing market vulnerability, though underlying buying may limit declines [8] Group 2 - The current market perception of gold as an asset class is shifting, with investors viewing it as a scarce asset amid the rise of "currency devaluation" trades on Wall Street [9]