中国股市慢牛正在形成！高盛力挺A股：未来两年有望涨30%，应转变思维“逢低买入”

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market will enter a more sustained upward phase, with key indices expected to rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings trends and a 5%-10% potential for further revaluation [2] - The report highlights that the reasons for a lasting bull market include a combination of demand-side stimulus and the new five-year plan, which aids in growth rebalancing and mitigating internal risks [2] - The macro risks may lead to periodic corrections as the bull market unfolds, but the prevailing sentiment should shift from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows" [2] Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - Bank of America’s consumer survey indicates that consumer spending in China showed resilience in October, with 53% of respondents reporting increased outings and spending over the past two months, up from 45% in August [3] - The survey suggests that high-income consumers are recovering, with 54% expecting to increase spending in the next six months, compared to only 31% of middle and low-income consumers [4] - The wealth effect from the stock market is more pronounced among affluent consumers, contributing to their optimistic spending outlook [4] Group 3: Real Estate Market Sentiment - The survey reveals that 35% of respondents expect home prices to decline over the next year, while 27% anticipate an increase, indicating a narrowing gap in price expectations compared to previous months [4] - Overall, the sentiment in the real estate market has not yet reached its low point but is approaching it [4]