多数经济学家预计日央行四季度将加息，日元贬值与通胀压力成关键推力

Core Viewpoint - A recent survey indicates that the majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise policy interest rates in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by inflationary pressures from the continued depreciation of the yen [1] Group 1: Economic Expectations - 60% of the 35 surveyed economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will increase interest rates in the current quarter (October to December) [1] - Among the respondents, 46% believe the rate hike will occur in January 2026, 31% expect it in December, and 14% predict it will happen in October [1] - Approximately 96% of economists forecast that by the end of March 2026, the Bank of Japan will raise rates by at least 25 basis points, increasing the short-term policy rate from the current 0.50% to 0.75% [1] Group 2: Political Influence - New Prime Minister Sanna Takashi advocates for active fiscal policies, which may exert influence on the central bank, but the market generally believes this will not significantly delay the normalization of monetary policy [1]