美联储怕了？鲍威尔释放双重信号，全球流动性已经到了关键时刻

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell amidst a government shutdown and key economic data delays, indicating a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy while facing challenges from trade tensions and economic uncertainties [1][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Signals - Powell's key message is one of continued easing, with a 96% probability of a rate cut in October, while emphasizing the need for a measured approach to avoid overstimulation [3][5]. - The possibility of ending the balance sheet reduction in the coming months is highlighted, suggesting a more liquid global financial environment [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with rising employment risks, which Powell's statements aim to address as a form of liquidity support during a data blackout [5][8]. - The increase in overnight financing rates indicates a tightening liquidity situation, prompting Powell to signal a change to prevent a repeat of past market crises [4][5]. Group 3: Trade Tensions Impact - President Trump's aggressive trade rhetoric, including threats of increased tariffs and restrictions on Chinese students, has negatively impacted market sentiment, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stock prices [7][8]. - The ongoing trade friction, which has escalated since early October, adds to the uncertainty in the market, complicating the economic outlook [7][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - Following Powell's remarks, the stock market initially rebounded, but Trump's comments quickly reversed this trend, illustrating the volatility driven by news events [5][7]. - Investors are advised to focus on asset allocation and balance, preparing for both opportunities from liquidity easing and the need for safe-haven assets amid rising uncertainties [9][10].