Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-22 08:22Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), projecting significant revenue growth driven by strong IP potential and overseas expansion opportunities [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's Q3 2025 unaudited overall revenue is expected to grow by 245%-250% year-on-year, with China region revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [1] - In the China region, offline channel revenue is projected to grow by 130%-135% year-on-year, while online channel revenue is expected to increase by 300%-305% [1] - The overseas market continues to show high growth, with the Asia-Pacific region expected to grow by 170%-175%, the Americas by 1265%-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735%-740% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The online growth rate in the domestic market exceeded 300% in Q3, significantly higher than the 212% growth in the first half of the year, attributed to enhanced channel strategies and new sales channels [2] - The Americas market is expected to experience monthly fluctuations due to restocking rhythms, while the European market focuses on expanding into underdeveloped areas [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q4, the company anticipates continued high revenue growth driven by e-commerce promotions in China and the North American shopping season starting with Halloween [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, the company expects smooth store performance improvements in China and the Asia-Pacific region, with significant growth potential in the Americas and Europe [3]