今年收益71%，贺方舟：有色行情远未结束，黄金上涨时间难以估量

Group 1 - The long-term narrative logic, liquidity support, and macro background suggest that the non-ferrous metal market is still in its early stages and has not yet reached its midpoint [2][39] - The strength of gold has been ongoing since last year, with the core logic being the weakening of the US dollar credit rather than just interest rate cuts, which are merely a catalytic factor [2][12][25] - The gold price is expected to continue rising at least until next year or the year after, driven by central bank purchases and the narrative of de-dollarization [2][3][25] Group 2 - Copper resources are not significantly overvalued, and the industrial non-ferrous metals sector is primarily driven by copper narratives, with other metals gaining attention due to increased copper consumption [2][10][39] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains this year, with indices generally rising between 70% and 90%, outperforming other sectors [8][9][10] - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to infrastructure upgrades and the transition to smart grids, while supply is constrained by slow production growth and stricter environmental regulations [10][11][19] Group 3 - The recent volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector is notable, with daily fluctuations exceeding 5%, indicating a strong cyclical nature [34][40] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, considering a phased investment strategy to manage risks associated with high volatility [34][38] - Current valuations of non-ferrous metals appear reasonable, with static PE around 22 times and PB around 3.4 times, suggesting that despite significant price increases, the sector remains attractive [36][39]