Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-22 09:05Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a growth in business volume and revenue, driven by a reduction in internal competition and an increase in pricing [1][2][4] Industry Summary - According to the National Postal Bureau's report, the express delivery business volume is expected to grow by approximately 12% year-on-year in September, while revenue is projected to increase by around 7% year-on-year [1][2] - The average revenue per package in September is estimated at 7.58 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [1][2] - The trend of reducing internal competition is leading to a continuous rise in express delivery prices across the country [2][4] Company Performance - YTO Express achieved a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with a revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, up 1.4% [1] - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 2.187 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%, with a revenue per package of 2.12 yuan, up 4.95% [1] - Yunda Express completed a business volume of 2.110 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 3.63%, with a revenue per package of 2.02 yuan, up 0.50% [1] Profitability Outlook - The third quarter is expected to show initial profit recovery for express delivery companies due to price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [4][5] - The industry is entering a new phase of reducing internal competition, with potential implications for pricing and profitability [5] Investment Recommendations - Companies with significant profit elasticity such as Shentong Express (002468.SZ) and YTO Express (600233.SH) are recommended for investment, along with J&T Express (01519) benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [6]