复产缓慢与进口收缩共筑供应壁垒，锡价高位运行有依【文华解读】

Supply Dynamics - The supply side has been a crucial factor influencing tin prices, with prices surpassing 290,000 yuan due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, reaching a six-month high [2] - Following the reduction of supply disruptions in Indonesia, tin prices have retreated to around 280,000 yuan, but the market is currently overestimating the price based on valuation lines [2] - China's imports of tin ore and concentrates for September 2025 reached 8,713.60 physical tons (approximately 3,444.62 metal tons), marking a year-on-year decline of 11.87% and a month-on-month decline of 26.59%, the lowest level this year [2] Import Trends - In September, imports from Myanmar increased significantly, with 3,136.76 tons (approximately 848.91 metal tons) imported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.55% and a month-on-month increase of 43.00% [5] - Other major supply countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, and Nigeria, saw a notable decline in supply, with total imports from these countries down 22.30% year-on-year and 36.66% month-on-month [7] - The decline in imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia was attributed to shipping delays rather than a decrease in local production [8] Market Outlook - The overall supply situation remains tight, with domestic tin supply not significantly improving, which continues to restrict the operating levels of smelting enterprises [9] - Despite a seasonal recovery in production expected in October, the motivation for sustained increases in operating rates is lacking due to ongoing tightness in raw material supply and low processing fees [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, which is gradually returning to normal, although current output remains below expectations [9]