英国9月通胀意外持稳 降息预期升温推动下两年期英债收益率跌至14个月低点

Group 1 - UK inflation remained unexpectedly stable in September, with CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year, matching the previous value and falling below market expectations of 4% [1] - Core CPI for September increased by 3.5% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 3.6% and market expectations of 3.7% [1] - The stable inflation has led traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, with the market now expecting a 17 basis point cut by the end of December, equating to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The two-year UK government bond yield fell by 10 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since August 2024, influenced by the rising expectations of rate cuts [4] - The British pound depreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, trading at 1.3320 [4] Group 3 - The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August, the highest level since May 2021, contrary to expectations of stability [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, below market expectations and marking the lowest level since the end of 2021, although still above the Bank of England's target of around 3% [5] - Bank of England Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the economy operating below potential and the ongoing weakness in the labor market [6]