奈飞，“剧王”真已平庸？

Core Viewpoint - Netflix's Q3 2025 earnings report revealed a significant drop in stock price, primarily due to a perceived earnings miss, which reflects a broader market sentiment towards high valuations and unmet expectations [1] Financial Performance - Actual earnings exceeded expectations when excluding a one-time cost of $619 million related to a municipal service tax in Brazil, which impacted profit margins by over 5 percentage points [2][46] - The adjusted operating profit was $3.87 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase, with a profit margin of 34%, surpassing market consensus [4][46] - Revenue growth was modest at 17% year-over-year, driven mainly by price increases and advertising, with no significant foreign exchange tailwinds [5][6][27] Subscription Growth - The net addition of subscribers was approximately 4 million, lower than the average of the past two years, indicating a slowdown in user growth [8][32] - Price increases in key markets like North America and Europe contributed to revenue growth, but the overall average revenue per user (ARPU) growth was limited to 3%-5% due to dilution from regions with unchanged pricing [7][28] Content and Advertising Strategy - Q3 saw the successful launch of popular content, including "KPop" and the conclusion of "Squid Game" Season 3, which generated high viewer engagement [9][33] - The advertising system launched in 12 key markets is still in the optimization phase, with expectations for ad revenue to double, targeting around $1.5 billion for the year [12][13] Cost Management - Content investment totaled $4.6 billion in Q3, reflecting a $500 million increase from the previous quarter, but overall spending is expected to fall short of the initial $18 billion target for the year [14][15][41] - Free cash flow for the quarter was approximately $2.66 billion, exceeding market expectations, with the annual cash flow target raised to $9 billion [50][51] Market Position and Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance concerns, the company maintains a long-term growth perspective, with confidence in upcoming content releases to drive subscriber growth in Q4 [11][35] - The competitive landscape remains relatively stable, allowing Netflix to control content investment growth, although external factors like tariffs and inflation could pose challenges [41][42]