山西证券：煤价平稳，看好板块四季度投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to have investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, with performance likely to improve compared to the third quarter, supported by stable coal prices and low overall sector valuations [1][7]. Supply - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate is declining [7]. - In September 2025, the output was 412 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% but a month-on-month increase of 5.38% [7]. Demand - The terminal demand from January to September 2025 was supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with fixed asset investment down 0.5% year-on-year [7]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, while infrastructure investment rose by 1.1%, and real estate investment fell by 13.9% [7]. - Cumulative growth rates for various sectors from January to September 2025 include: thermal power at -1.2%, coke at 3.5%, pig iron at -1.1%, and cement at -5.2% [7]. Import - Coal imports in September showed a month-on-month increase, but the cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 346 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [7]. - In September 2025, imports reached 46 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.34% but a month-on-month increase of 7.64% [7]. Price - In September 2025, coal prices showed a stable upward trend, while coke prices slightly declined [8]. - The average prices for various coal types in September 2025 indicated a mixed performance, with the following month-on-month increases: thermal coal > coking coal > coke [8].