Apple(US:AAPL) 智通财经网·2025-10-22 10:33Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) with a 12-month target price of $279.00, indicating a potential upside of 6.4% [1] Financial Performance Expectations - For Q4 FY2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts revenue of $103.5 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding market consensus of $101.8 billion [1] - Expected EPS is $1.81, above the market consensus of $1.77 [1] - Gross margin is projected at 46.5%, including $1.1 billion in tariff costs, aligning with the company's previous guidance [1] Segment Analysis - iPhone Revenue: Expected to reach $50.8 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance of the iPhone 17 series and a 3% increase in unit sales [1] - Mac Revenue: Anticipated at $8.681 billion, a 12% increase, supported by the replacement cycle of older devices [2] - iPad Revenue: Projected at $6.93 billion, flat year-over-year, with demand supported by old device replacements but offset by educational discounts [2] - Services Revenue: Expected to be $28.2 billion, a 13% increase, with growth in subscription services compensating for slower App Store spending growth [2] Future Growth Drivers - Continued demand for the iPhone 17 series and upcoming innovations such as the iPhone 18 foldable model are expected to drive future growth [3] - A rich product pipeline includes the launch of M4 Ultra chip Mac Pro in late 2025 and various iPad models in 2025-2027 [3] - The introduction of Smart Glasses and Vision Pro 2 in the coming years will enhance Apple's ecosystem [3] Market Position and Challenges - Goldman Sachs believes that third-party payment impacts on the App Store are limited, as users prefer seamless experiences [4] - The smartphone market remains resilient, with Apple's active installed base continuing to grow [4] - Challenges include macroeconomic impacts on demand, supply chain dependencies, increased competition, and regulatory pressures [4]