为啥不买美国大豆？一文让你洞悉全部

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean harvest is at a record high, but U.S. farmers face a crisis due to a lack of exports to China, leading to rising inventories [2][9] - China's soybean imports are primarily from Brazil, with U.S. soybean imports significantly reduced due to trade tensions and market dynamics [3][6] - Argentina's recent tax cuts on soybean exports have led to increased sales, further impacting U.S. soybean demand [4][9] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Production and Exports - The USDA reports that the 2025 soybean export season has begun, but there are no recorded sales to China, resulting in accumulating inventories [2] - U.S. soybean production is expected to exceed 115 million tons despite a reduction in planting area, with the harvest nearing completion [8][9] - The U.S. soybean export season, typically strong from August to December, is underperforming this year, with sales significantly lower than previous years [7][9] Group 2: China's Soybean Import Dynamics - China imported 86.19 million tons of soybeans from January to September 2025, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, with Brazilian soybeans making up 73.9% of total imports [3] - The reliance on U.S. soybeans has decreased from a peak of 40% pre-2019 to around 20% in recent years, driven by increased imports from Brazil and Argentina [6][9] - The purchasing decisions of Chinese oil mills are based on profitability, leading to a preference for Brazilian soybeans over U.S. soybeans [5][6] Group 3: Market Trends and Price Outlook - The global soybean market is experiencing oversupply, with U.S. soybean prices expected to remain low due to high production and weak demand [9][10] - The recent tax cuts in Argentina have led to a surge in soybean exports, primarily to China, which may further suppress U.S. soybean prices [4][9] - The outlook for U.S. soybean prices in the fourth quarter is uncertain, hinging on U.S.-China relations and domestic biodiesel policies [10]