急刹车！46次新高后深度回调，黄金信仰动摇？

Core Viewpoint - After reaching a record high of $4,381 per ounce, gold prices experienced a significant drop of over 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, with futures settling at $4,109.10 per ounce. This sharp adjustment is seen as a natural correction following a rapid increase in prices, rather than a trend reversal [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including profit-taking by investors, a decrease in market risk aversion, and a 0.4% rise in the US dollar index, which pressured gold priced in dollars. Additionally, panic selling and algorithmic trading exacerbated the downward trend [3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged nearly 70%, making this year the largest annual increase since 1979, despite the recent drop. Currently, gold's price increase for the year stands at approximately 57% [3]. Institutional Responses - Following the price drop, several banks, including Everbright Bank and Industrial Bank, have issued risk warnings regarding precious metals trading, advising clients to monitor their positions and manage risk exposure carefully [6][7]. - Citigroup has downgraded its overweight recommendation on gold, citing concerns over high positions and predicting that gold prices will stabilize around $4,000 per ounce in the coming weeks [5]. Impact on Related Markets - The decline in gold prices has led to significant reductions in domestic gold jewelry prices, with major retailers reporting drops of up to 83 yuan per gram [4]. - Silver also experienced a sharp decline, with spot silver prices falling 7.6% to $48.49 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since 2021 [5]. Investment Trends - The World Gold Council reported record inflows into physical gold ETFs, with total inflows reaching $26 billion in the third quarter, pushing total assets under management to $472 billion [10]. - Despite the recent price adjustments, analysts suggest that the underlying bullish sentiment for gold remains intact, with expectations of continued demand driven by concerns over fiat currency devaluation and a potential shift away from the US dollar as a primary reserve asset [3][11].