布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：巴尔对美联储连续降息表怀疑

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Barr emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy adjustments amid persistent inflation and a cooling job market, adding uncertainty to expectations of consecutive rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Barr supports the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in September but clarifies that this does not imply a series of continuous rate cuts [3]. - He highlights ongoing concerns about inflation, citing that it may not return to the 2% target until the end of 2027, which he considers a long wait for consumers [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with the core index reaching 2.9% [6]. - Barr anticipates that the core PCE price index will remain above 3% by the end of the year, indicating a prolonged path to achieving the inflation target [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with job creation significantly slowing since May, although the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% as of August [6][9]. Group 4: Tariff Policy Impact - Barr expresses skepticism about the impact of tariff policies on inflation, noting that the effective tariff rate has risen significantly, reaching approximately 11% in August, which may lead businesses to pass costs onto consumers [6]. Group 5: Internal Policy Discrepancies - Barr's cautious stance contrasts with other Fed officials, such as New York Fed President Williams, who supports further policy easing, and newly appointed Governor Stephen Milan, who advocates for more aggressive rate cuts [9].