是什么让“黄金牛”驻足回望？

Core Viewpoint - The recent extreme fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to an overcrowded bullish market, leading to profit-taking by long positions after a significant price increase since September [2][5]. Price Movement - On October 21, spot gold experienced a sharp decline of 6.3%, reaching approximately $4080 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013. The closing price on that day was down 5.31%, the largest drop in nearly 12 years [3][4]. - On October 22, spot gold further dipped to a low of $4002 per ounce before recovering, with the price stabilizing around $4139 per ounce at the time of reporting [3]. - COMEX gold futures also fell by 5.07% on October 21, closing at $4138.5 per ounce [4]. Market Impact - The decline in gold prices has negatively affected gold-related stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold opening down over 7% on October 22, and closing down more than 3% [4]. - Several jewelry brands reported a decrease in domestic gold jewelry prices, with notable drops in the prices of gold per gram [4]. Factors Behind the Decline - The extreme market conditions are primarily due to a high level of bullish sentiment, with significant profit accumulation since September, prompting profit-taking [5]. - Short-term risk factors have eased, including positive signals in U.S.-China trade relations and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, leading to decreased demand for gold as a safe haven [6]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices had risen too quickly, reaching overbought conditions, necessitating a correction [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent price correction is a normal occurrence and does not alter the long-term upward trend for gold prices, despite recent easing in U.S.-China trade tensions [7]. - Historical trends suggest that after a prolonged period of price increases, gold may experience a correction of 20% to 40% within the following year [8]. - The World Gold Council indicates that gold is likely to remain resilient, especially during stock market corrections, as long as there are no significant liquidity crises [9].